Speculation about the chronology of XV's events

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Cadet

Yevonite
Jan 16, 2015
48
52
Duscae Region
#1
A Twitter user (@kazuakume) shared his thoughts on how the invasion of Insomnia plays out. I thought it would be worth discussing with you folks, so with his permission, I've posted it here on MC. Thank you for reading to the end!

Source: http://umetaiko072.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-16389.html
Images (c) SQUARE ENIX.

Official story description (on which he will base his speculation)
Lucis, home to the last crystal left in existence, a kingdom that forbids all and any use of weaponry. After a long-standing cold war, the kingdom of Lucis and the garrison state of Niflheim have at last agreed to a peace treaty. Things go downhill, however, when Niflheim shatters Lucis's magic barrier, and fighting between the two nations erupts. Prince Noctis, heir to the Lucis throne, and his friends find themselves caught in the midst of this sudden war, and the peaceful lives they once knew are now but a fond memory.

Speculation of how the invasion plays out (i.e. the order of events) begins here.

Niflheim visits Lucis in order to sign the peace treaty that both nations agreed to.
upload_2015-1-25_14-22-43.png

At that time, Noctis is in Lucis, riding the car as seen in the 2011 trailer:
upload_2015-1-25_14-27-7.png
upload_2015-1-25_14-27-15.png
upload_2015-1-25_14-27-21.png
^ Remember that he sees these Niflheim airships and mumbles to the chauffeur: "Looks like we've been invaded, huh."

At around that time, Niflheim actually betrays Lucis.
Regis: "So you've come for the crystal?"
Aedolus (Idola): "I needn't even tell you. The last crystal left to this world..."
upload_2015-1-25_14-33-20.png
(Me: Based on Niflheim's history of stealing crystals from Tenebrae, Solheim, and Accordo, Regis should've seen this coming...)

Despite this confrontation, Regis does NOT die here. Recall the dialogue from the E3 2013 trailer:
Noctis: "My old man is on the lam."
Ignis: "Yeah, let's hurry."

Regis may have fled after his confrontation with Aedolus.

This is when the "real" invasion of Insomnia actually begins, after the king has fled.
Aedolus: "It is high time we sever the line of Lucis once and for all [ . . . ] finish suppressing the Lucii loyalists. As for the prince – the son of Regis – kill him on sight." Etc.
upload_2015-1-25_14-38-23.png
upload_2015-1-25_14-38-33.png

Here's where the fun starts: Aedolus is walking out of the Lucis Castle, and at this point, the crystal has not yet been taken out of Insomnia. Rather, it is speculated that the man in the white hood, not Aedolus, is the one who will find and seize the crystal.
upload_2015-1-25_14-41-2.png

upload_2015-1-25_14-42-25.png
upload_2015-1-25_14-42-48.png
Notice the two-toned outfit that this man wears. He's the only one with such a design. Although he (and everyone else on the Niflheim side) is wearing a helmet, perhaps it is part of the battle gear?

Let's recall the hooded man for a second. The room where he talks to the man in metal is the same room where this showdown happens. Compare the walls:
upload_2015-1-25_14-45-9.png
upload_2015-1-25_14-44-47.png
upload_2015-1-25_14-44-57.png

Part 1 has ended. I will continue the speculation in Part 2 (the next post).
 

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Cadet

Yevonite
Jan 16, 2015
48
52
Duscae Region
#2
Part 2 (continued)

Now to turn to Noctis and his buddies:
There's dialogue in the 2011 trailer where Ignis tells Noctis that he (the Prince) must leave immediately, otherwise the number of victims will increase. Ignis suspects that Niflheim will try to take Noctis hostage in exchange for the crystal during "negotiations." Noctis scoffs at the possibility of a negotiation. The main thing is, sounds like the Prince and his buddies are on the run from here on out. It is speculated that some major event has happened so as to prompt these "negotiations."

At this point, Lucis is being assaulted, Regis has fled, Noctis is still in the country, and Niflheim still doesn't know where the crystal is. By taking Noctis hostage, Niflheim can squeeze the crystal's whereabouts out of him in exchange for his life (which is probably BS). That's why Noctis has to leave the country ASAP because staying there will be extremely precarious for him.

And here's where we come to our footage from the recent JF trailer, where Prompto wonders if everyone's all right, why Noctis snaps back at him for such a naive thought, etc, etc.
http://blog-imgs-77.fc2.com/u/m/e/umetaiko072/018_201501250125589acs.jpg
http://blog-imgs-77.fc2.com/u/m/e/umetaiko072/021_201501250125577d6s.jpg
http://blog-imgs-77.fc2.com/u/m/e/umetaiko072/016_20150125012552afbs.jpg
^ This line isn't in the trailer. It says something like, "Calm down. [We] don't know [the situation] so [we ought to] head back." I'm not sure if Gladiolus is the one who says this.

Basically meaning, Noctis and his friends DO head back to Lucis in the middle of the conflict, and here's where Ignis discovers:
"They're going to try to take the crystal out of the city. Before they can, whatever it takes..."
Noctis: "... We need to get it back."
The crystal is probably quite big.

So: a) Niflheim will need some time to transport it out of Insomnia, and b) Noctis and his friends will easily be able to spot it. (My speculation.)

When they return to Lucis, Noctis sees smoke rising out of his own castle.
View attachment 208

The crystal that Niflheim is seeking is actually enshrined in Noctis's own throne! However, it appears no one has ever seen the crystal in person, so not even Noctis himself! (Perhaps he doesn't even know about this fact.) In essence, the crystal has been hidden in Noctis's own room this whole time.
http://blog-imgs-77.fc2.com/u/m/e/umetaiko072/WS000000_20150125013638eb3.jpg

Noctis enters his room in the castle, only to find that a hooded man (likely associated with Niflheim - perhaps the same hooded man?) is stealing the crystal right there and then in front of his eyes. Thus, a battle ensues, as seen in the 2008 DKS713 trailer.
http://i.imgur.com/VKttNW8.gif
upload_2015-1-25_15-14-25.png

However, as we know the outcome, the crystal ends up getting stolen, anyway. (Meaning, if events actually unfold in this manner, Noctis loses terribly.)

And here's where we have Noctis and his friends scheming to get the crystal back. (Noctis: "Got a plan that'll deal 'em back 10 times?" Ignis: "How about a 100 times?")
upload_2015-1-25_15-15-50.png

And this is where the tale of getting the crystal back begins! Or so it is speculated.
upload_2015-1-25_15-16-30.png

Obviously, this is only speculation, and if we read carefully, there are some unexplained gaps (e.g. are Noctis and his friends going to try to meet Regis?).

My question is, how does Episode Duscae factor into this narrative? Noctis and his buddies seem pretty laid back in this area, and not at all like they've just run out of a war zone.

Thanks for reading! I hope we can discuss this in length and think about implications of the plot and story.
 

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King Bimpy

Clan Centurio Member
Jul 11, 2014
127
46
32
#8
he doesnt say " "Looks like we've been invaded, huh." he says something like that is quite the site. il get the quote
 

LeonBlade

Administrator
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Oct 25, 2013
2,026
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Blossvale, New York
#13
Which parts? Well, in a sense, it IS common knowledge as nothing from this user's speculation consists of leaked info, lol.
It's not really common knowledge to anyone outside of those who have been closely following the game and making their own speculations since we heard about it from the Versus days.
 

Infest

Blitzball Champion
Sep 8, 2014
540
346
Germany
#14
Which parts? Well, in a sense, it IS common knowledge as nothing from this user's speculation consists of leaked info, lol.
I mean literally the whole part 1 and that the man in the white robe who faces Noctis in the throne room steals the crystal. I'm not completely sold on part 2 yet. But he's also missing the peace agreement party where Noctis meets Stella in his chronology ( it's probably around the same time as the signing ceremony but I'm not really sure about that).
 

Infest

Blitzball Champion
Sep 8, 2014
540
346
Germany
#15
My question is, how does Episode Duscae factor into this narrative? Noctis and his buddies seem pretty laid back in this area, and not at all like they've just run out of a war zone.
Well we know that they change the story for the Episode Duscae demo quite a bit so that we don't get major story spoilers from the beginning of the game but I also wonder how it fits in the chronology. If we look at the TGS 2014 trailer their little duscae adventure has to be before the invasion but if I had to guess I'd say that it actually takes place after the invasion and that they've showed us the changed storyline from Episode Duscae in the tgs trailer. Purely speculation on my part of course.
 
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Cadet

Yevonite
Jan 16, 2015
48
52
Duscae Region
#16
I mean literally the whole part 1 and that the man in the white robe who faces Noctis in the throne room steals the crystal. I'm not completely sold on part 2 yet. But he's also missing the peace agreement party where Noctis meets Stella in his chronology ( it's probably around the same time as the signing ceremony but I'm not really sure about that).
Thanks for bringing this point up. I'll ask him, but my guess would be that Noctis meets Stella just as Aedolus confronts Regis. He has a picture of the Niflheim airship crashing the party (literally) where he talks about the "real" beginning of the invasion.
 
Likes: LeonBlade
Jun 7, 2014
898
625
Poland
#17
Overall nice summary. It's the most likely way the events will play out.
(Me: Based on Niflheim's history of stealing crystals from Tenebrae, Solheim, and Accordo, Regis should've seen this coming...)
We only know that other nations lost their crystals through warfare. Saying that Nifleheim is the one that stole them is a bit of a leap.
I won't believe this is legit until someone points me the exact second of a trailer where it appears.
 
Likes: Cadet

Cadet

Yevonite
Jan 16, 2015
48
52
Duscae Region
#18
Overall nice summary. It's the most likely way the events will play out.

We only know that other nations lost their crystals through warfare. Saying that Nifleheim is the one that stole them is a bit of a leap.
Thank you! As for the point you've brought up, Ignis mentions that Niflheim has warred against other nations for their crystals in the E3 2013 announcement trailer. It has been mentioned time after time that Lucis possesses the last crystal in existence (also in the trailer towards the end, Aedolus's line). Therefore, I assume Niflheim has been successful in taking the crystals of other nations. See 1:45.

I won't believe this is legit until someone points me the exact second of a trailer where it appears.
I think I've tracked down someone who may know where this image came from. Will ask and get back to you! :)
 
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LeonBlade

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Oct 25, 2013
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#19
Overall nice summary. It's the most likely way the events will play out.

We only know that other nations lost their crystals through warfare. Saying that Nifleheim is the one that stole them is a bit of a leap.

I won't believe this is legit until someone points me the exact second of a trailer where it appears.
I have recreated it myself here, it appears in the recent trailer from Jump Festa around 40 seconds in (depending on what video you're viewing) where you see airships flying over the Lucis barrier. I created it by taking the section of the barrier seen in the image and squishing it horizontally to create that image.

 
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somni

PSICOM Soldier
Nov 26, 2013
70
41
#20
Very solid theory! It also falls in line with a lot of my own assumptions of how the first act will play out. In addition to that, I think Episode Duscae is closer to the very beginning in the story, possibly prior in the day or the week of the peace treaty signing. The tone is very causal in contrast to the events thereafter, and the radio broadcast is reporting that the negotiations are still underway.

Noctis himself seems like he's not so interested in the actual politics. Especially recalling that quote of his: "Fools set the rules in this world. Just take a look around. It's undeniable". It seems he (as well as the others) wanted to break away, at least until his presence was obligated as the heir apparent. Which would serve as an opportunity to get familiar with each of the characters before obvious motives are set in place (as well as getting a taste of game itself without spoiling anything major.)
 
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