Late 2015 for Japan and early 2016 for the rest of us is my bet...
I just hope they don't push it so hard, just because most fans expect it to get released next year. The result will not be satisfying and I really expect to play the best FF ever! They promised this to themselves and therefore to us!
However, many if not the majority of fans, have so damn many demands and are not satisfied at all with anything! I really believe SE should just focus on their goal and close a bit their ears regarding this matter. They should keep us informed for the progression of development yes, but not do whatever each fan wants! They should take their time and bring the best game in the FF or even in the whole console gaming history...
Game comes out summer 2015 for Japan , Square Enix releases an iOS spinoff of the game right after that, the free to play version bombs in NA/Europe and Square Enix decides that there isnt enough interest in the game to localize it.
A small group of hardcore fans decide that they will translate the game for us, but Square Enix orders an immediate cease and desist order to them, Shuhei Yoshida tweets that Sony offered to pay for the localization and Square Enix refused.
We all go to sleep that night hungry, cold, desperate, and alone.
Hmm. First E3 trailer supposedly contained a significant amount of target renders instead of the genuine thing. Unwillingness to come out with another reveal of the game during the biggest gaming convention in Japan this year. No tentative release window from them in sight. Only recently jumped to next-gen hardware so I heard.
Yeah, somewhere in 2015 seems a safe bet. If not mid-2015 in Japan, then perhaps a late-2015 launch then, to make it consistent with when each of the three FFXIII games came/are coming out. Anyone saying it will be 2014 might want to stop right there. You're being way too optimistic. No, do not do that.
The only question this leaves is: what would SE Japan have for their 2014 fiscal year in terms of big releases?
@Fleur: Very good question. What if the trailers shown had already been prepared a year in advance? I'm not saying they are, but if Square Enix was ready to reveal XV last year and had the materials to do so, wouldn't axing all promotional content and recreating trailers from scratch have been a complete waste of time and effort? (Well, Nomura and the XV team are probably used to doing this with their game by now, lol.)
I also doubt the company would just wade through an entire year without a single major release from its Japan HQ and risk staying in the red. LR in outside territories and the X/X-2 HD Remaster don't count because they technically fall under the last quarter of the 2013 fiscal year. What is SE up to these days?
They're probably gearing up for the next fiscal year to be the year of mobile games. Enough of them so they can survive it without a single major new HD game release. I mean, they've already started. DQX Online for mobile platforms!
Apart from Drakengard 3, which isn't in-house and by the looks of it, has had a very frugal budget. And is probably a very niche game anyway.
I had no clue a dutch magazine reported that lol, I heard about it from three or four sources and a friend of mine in Europe works for a gaming company who had news on it. Also a former Square Enix employee who worked on XV even leaked the rumor and there were reports of Square Enix suing him for it. Not that I'm trusting any of it but I expect it 2014 to early 2015.