Yeah, no chance of a XVI being a MMORPG (it will most likely have some online components, though. APZ already mentioned about the kind of hiring the XIV was doing and XV seems like a good testing ground for it).
In regards to Tabata's words about XV being a "make or break" game, well, I can see that, but I have no doubt in my mind that they would have continued working on it: maybe with a bigger focus on spin-offs and mobile games and, especially, a different, much cheaper and safer approach for XVI, but there's no way they would abandon their arguably biggest IP. Just readjust their expectatives and restrain their budget.
I still believe that XVI has been in development for a while, but I'm not too confident in that "while" being that long ago or that substantial. If we're a bit pessimistic and believe that the game is being worked on, they're probably entering full production right now and not before. I'm still betting on them having been working on this for, at least, a year and a half.
Also, I don't know about you, but I'm really excited and curious about Tabata's new IP, whether it's, like Koozek says it might be, related to Agni or not. S-E really needs (well, I know I do) another AAA JRPG series that's totally unrelated to FF, KH and DQ where they can experiment in regards to visual styles, gameplay mechanics and storylines, hopefully more adult ones: not because I think those are inherently better (not at all), but, because, thinking about it, DQ and KH are quite lighthearted (if we forget about the edgier KH parts where "muh darkness" is present), while FF isn't all that heavy when it comes to being explicit when it comes to certain themes (and I'm totally fine with it, as it fits what the series has been about so far). If they want this IP to be a new flagship series, that could be a good distinct point, at least for starters.
I also want the guy to prove himself with a big title made from scratch by him and without any kind of previous baggage. I've come to really appreciate the man and, while certainly not perfect (he could have a better eye for stories, among many other flaws), I believe that he's much more talented that people give him credit for. At the very least, he's a very good director on a practical level. Let's see how he handles himself in such a project creativity-wise.